8 Bold Predictions for San Jose Earthquakes in 2022
by Mike Kleeman
Tuesday, Feb 22 2022
Tuesday, Feb 22 2022
We’re just a couple more days away from kicking off the MLS season. I’ve been down on San Jose’s prospects every year under Matias Almeyda, but not in 2022. It seems much of the fanbase is discouraged by San Jose heading into the season, as are the talking heads, but I think we’re trending upwards and big things are in store for the Quakes. My bold predictions for the San Jose Earthquakes in 2022.
1. Nathan wins Defender of the Year
Inserted into the starting lineup just a week after landing in San Jose, Nathan shored up San Jose’s backline immediately. Amongst center backs last year, only Yeimar and Leandro Gonzalez Pirez finished with more interceptions, but did so playing a full season. Nathan finished the year fourth in center back duals, registering an impressive 171. Projected over a full season, he easily would have finished ahead of league leaders Yeimar (191), Sean Nealis (175) and Gonzalez Pirez (172). Admittedly, one could argue Matias Alymeda’s style of play presents an opportunity for defenders to fill up the stat sheet, but I think San Jose supporters would agree that Nathan’s ability to affect a game goes well beyond stats. The fist pumps, aggressive tackles and infectious enthusiasm is the type of play that captivates MLS award voters. To win Defender of the Year though requires something special. Not only does your team need to be an MLS Cup contender, but there’s one specific category that must be dominated by a center back to win - Goals Scored. Walker Zimmerman, Ike Opara and Aaron Long have won each of the last five Defender of the Year awards. Coincidentally, each scored precisely three goals in the years they won. Nathan scored twice in his first 20 MLS starts and was a considerable threat on set pieces all summer long. He’s also averaged near three goals a season over his career. Nathan’s got at least two opportunities to posterize Zimmerman for a game winning goal this year. Do that and there’s a chance he dethrones Zimmerman or is at least named to an MLS Best XI.
2. Jackson Yueill gets traded
Team captain Jackson Yueill enters the second of a three-year deal that saw him earn $630k last year which truly is a club friendly contract. I’m not convinced Yueill has ever had a strong desire to play oversees and may be content to stay put in MLS. The question is does he consider himself a San Jose lifer? Yueill is my favorite Quakes player; my fandom partially fueled by coaches, the Outlaws and even Quakes fans who have often underrated and undervalued Yueill at every stage of his career. I’m certain most MLS clubs’ rate Yueill much higher than San Jose and would be willing to pay a hefty price for his services. The winter signing of Jan Gregus with a club option for 2023 may provide a clue that Jackson isn’t going to stay in San Jose for much longer. Selling him at the end of the season eliminates the risk he plays out his contract and signs elsewhere as a free agent. I prefer Jackson stays in San Jose forever, but it would be a shrewd move by Leitch to trade him, considering the depth in our midfield. The perfect fit for Jackson? St. Louis City SC. The expansion club enters MLS next year and would be wise to secure a box-to-box midfielder captain to build the team around, similar to the way Austin FC did with Alex Ring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Louis trade $1.8 million in GAM for Yueill ahead of their 2023 debut.
3. Tommy Thompson scores his first MLS home goal
Veteran and fan favorite Tommy Thompson enters his ninth MLS season. Hard to believe San Jose’s first homegrown signing has tallied just four MLS goals over his career, two of which if we’re to be honest were complete flubs. He’s never gotten the minutes he deserved under Kinnear and Stahre. Matias favors him at RB, which doesn’t bode well for Tommy bagging many goals. For some reason, Espinoza never looks for Tommy in the attacking third when he overlaps so goal scoring chances for TT are few and far between. Did you know none of his four MLS goals have come at PayPal Park? I need to will his first home goal into existence. Maybe Thompson’s nagging injuries over the past few years are behind him and he’ll be able push for more minutes under Almeyda’s final year. I sense his first PayPal Park goal is in the cards for 2022. A shirts off yellow card pop n lock goal celebration in front of the Faultline!
4. Cade Cowell books a flight to Qatar
How much longer do we have Cowell in San Jose before he’s sold to Dortmund for $15+ million? (Fingers crossed) I’m just going to enjoy every match he has left in San Jose this year and see him finish 2022 at the World Cup. This time last year I hyped Ricardo Pepi, predicting he’d cement his place atop the USMNT striker depth chart. Cowell is about the same age Pepi was right before setting MLS on fire with Dallas. I’ve tracked both careers closely and can say with confidence, Cowell has developed at the same pace as Pepi in MLS. Certainly, they possess different qualities, but both are exceptional goal scoring finishers for their age. Cowell is trending towards a huge 2022 and will solidify a spot on this year’s World Cup roster. Maybe not quite the final 23 but certainly as one of the 7 alternates. Assuming Berhalter goes with a 4-3-3 and carries 7 wingers, I have Cowell currently ranked behind Pulisic, Weah, Aaronson, Reyna, Morris, Hoppe, Arriola and Konrad de la Fuente. Gio and Konrad are fighting off injuries and Morris is coming off 2 ACL surgeries. Pulisic is susceptible to the injury bug so my question is are all these forwards going to stay healthy and in the mix for the World Cup? Not likely. Reyna and de la Fuente possibly miss out on the next Qualifiers in March. Leapfrogging Arriola and Konrad on the depth chart is in Cowell’s immediate future. If he starts the year hot like he did in 2021 he’s going to get a call from Berhalter and see significant minutes this cycle. Wouldn’t you go bugnutz for a Cowell banger at the Azteca?! He’s going to finish off the year in style sporting the red, white and blue.
5. Matias Almeyda goes the distance
The truth is Almeyda’s destiny is to finish out his contract whether he stewards this team to the playoffs or not. This prediction follows through on my original take after his first year in San Jose – Almeyda goes all four years as HC of the Earthquakes. Rumors constantly swirl that his departure is imminent and he’s going to ditch the Quakes for a better gig. It’s never been realistic. From the date of his hire I’ve reiterated the complexity of Almeyda’s paycheck, an astonishing four-year contract, and the sheer number of coaching staff members he brought with him to San Jose would always prevent him from bailing early. The miracle that Jesse Fioranelli pulled off when he lured Almeyda was that he somehow convinced Fisher to spend a stupid amount of money on Almeyda and his staff in lieu of signing true DPs. It was a naïve strategy, but at the time Fisher bought in. Almeyda’s annual salary is probably in the $1 million plus range making him the highest paid manager over the past three years in MLS. Almeyda and Fisher are handcuffed together. Even if Almeyda wanted to leave, which Liga MX team would offer even half his owed salary to buy him out? Don’t forget as Almeyda goes so does his entourage. Each of his staff is probably making more money per year in San Jose than they’ll ever see again on an annual basis. Giving Almeyda the boot isn’t as easy as it seems. Cheap as Fisher is, he certainly regrets paying a hefty sum for Almeyda, but no way would he ever fire him after just one or two years. That would bring Almeyda and his staff immediate millions and leave Fisher with the cost of not only hiring a new manager but an entire new technical staff. Who would replace him midseason? Alex Covelo would have been an obvious choice, but he’s now leading the MLS Next Pro team. This leaves nobody in San Jose to name as an interim coach if Almeyda leaves midseason. Or maybe there is?
6. San Jose secures a home playoff match on decision day
This year will mark the first and last time under head coach Matias Almeyda that San Jose makes the playoffs. Save your correction blurts and magic spray memes please! Finishing eighth during Covid 2020 doesn’t count in my book. Perhaps Nashville FC’s one year hiatus from the Eastern conference pushes other teams out west down a notch in the playoff pecking order, but I’m more optimistic heading into 2022 than I’ve been over the past three years of Almeyda’s reign. This time a year ago many fans and a few MLS pundits predicted San Jose would sneak into the playoffs. What’s changed for the worse heading into this next season? Why all the doom and gloom? San Jose has clearly made up ground, closing the talent gap with its Western Conference foes. There’s high-level TAM and low-level DP talent up and down San Jose’s revamped roster and I see potential in this club for the first time in years. The Jamiro Monteiro trade last week is massive. My hunch is he just needs a change of scenery to find his form again. When he’s on his game in the attack, he makes everyone around him better. Where is the excitement for a full year from Jeremy Ebobisse and Jan Gregus? Chofis turned in a DP caliber performance in the second half 2021 and I thought he’d be a bust. The icing on the cake is the sheer power of ‘addition by subtraction’. Simply eliminate the minutes awarded to Fierro, Rios, Vega and Alanis over Almeyda’s tenure and San Jose finishes as a seventh seed or better every year. Fact check that if you want, but you know it’s true. The X factor is a full season of Nathan leading the backline. Praying his knee is OK. No way in Matias-hell can we leak as many goals in defense as in years past. But if I’m picking Nathan to be MLS Defender of the Year, or at least an MLS best XI, I must also make the bold prediction that San Jose makes the playoffs. Why? Because the last team to have a best XI center back and not make the playoffs? It never happens. You have to go all the way back to Jimmy Conrad at SKC in 2005. I got Seattle first in the West followed by LAFC, Nashville, San Jose, Portland, LA Galaxy and SKC in seventh. San Jose will head to Seattle on decision day and clinch its first home playoff match at PayPal.
7. Jeremy Ebobisse scores 17 goals
Where are all the goals going to come from? Every offseason panic sets in and we bicker over where San Jose is going to get their goals. It’s pretty clear Jebo must be the answer in 2022. I flirted with the idea of picking a dark horse candidate like Benji Kikanovich to lead San Jose in goals scored, but after the signing of Jamiro Monteiro I’m confident the attack will be much improved. This bodes well for Jebo to have a career year and I think he makes for a sneaky play as a Golden Boot dark horse. That might be a stretch, but the talent has always been there with Ebobisse. All he requires is to finally be featured as a striker, which inexplicably didn’t happen for him in Portland. Surrounded by Cowell, Monteiro and Espinoza, all of whom are exceptional at creating chances and tallying assists, sky’s the limit for Ebobisse. 17 goals and an MLS All-Star selection for Jebo in 2022.
8. San Jose names Landon Donovan head coach for 2023
Next year will mark the 20 Year anniversary of San Jose’s last MLS Cup victory. Maybe it’s time to bring some Landon Donovan magic back to San Jose. The Earthquakes roster construction since last summer has been incredible considering what Leitch had to work with. I trust under his leadership that by season’s end our head coaching vacancy may actually be appealing to many candidates. Sam Stejskal reported in September 2021 that Donovan had interviewed for the Real Salt Lake managerial position, and it was widely reported a month later than Donovan actually turned it down. Why? He clearly has his eyes set on MLS if the perfect situation arises. I’m boldly predicting it’s because he's holding out for San Jose. Or perhaps Las Vegas? Donovan currently is co-owner, coach and EVP of San Diego Loyal SC in the USL Championship which means he would likely want to finish the USL season before securing an MLS head coaching position. I’m pretty sure MLS and USL finish up their seasons around the same time this year, right before the World Cup commences. That just might be perfect timing to bring back a legend for club and country. Would you welcome Donovan back with open arms? (ducks head)
Give me your bold predictions, criticisms and hot takes in the comments below. Go Quakes!
1. Nathan wins Defender of the Year
Inserted into the starting lineup just a week after landing in San Jose, Nathan shored up San Jose’s backline immediately. Amongst center backs last year, only Yeimar and Leandro Gonzalez Pirez finished with more interceptions, but did so playing a full season. Nathan finished the year fourth in center back duals, registering an impressive 171. Projected over a full season, he easily would have finished ahead of league leaders Yeimar (191), Sean Nealis (175) and Gonzalez Pirez (172). Admittedly, one could argue Matias Alymeda’s style of play presents an opportunity for defenders to fill up the stat sheet, but I think San Jose supporters would agree that Nathan’s ability to affect a game goes well beyond stats. The fist pumps, aggressive tackles and infectious enthusiasm is the type of play that captivates MLS award voters. To win Defender of the Year though requires something special. Not only does your team need to be an MLS Cup contender, but there’s one specific category that must be dominated by a center back to win - Goals Scored. Walker Zimmerman, Ike Opara and Aaron Long have won each of the last five Defender of the Year awards. Coincidentally, each scored precisely three goals in the years they won. Nathan scored twice in his first 20 MLS starts and was a considerable threat on set pieces all summer long. He’s also averaged near three goals a season over his career. Nathan’s got at least two opportunities to posterize Zimmerman for a game winning goal this year. Do that and there’s a chance he dethrones Zimmerman or is at least named to an MLS Best XI.
2. Jackson Yueill gets traded
Team captain Jackson Yueill enters the second of a three-year deal that saw him earn $630k last year which truly is a club friendly contract. I’m not convinced Yueill has ever had a strong desire to play oversees and may be content to stay put in MLS. The question is does he consider himself a San Jose lifer? Yueill is my favorite Quakes player; my fandom partially fueled by coaches, the Outlaws and even Quakes fans who have often underrated and undervalued Yueill at every stage of his career. I’m certain most MLS clubs’ rate Yueill much higher than San Jose and would be willing to pay a hefty price for his services. The winter signing of Jan Gregus with a club option for 2023 may provide a clue that Jackson isn’t going to stay in San Jose for much longer. Selling him at the end of the season eliminates the risk he plays out his contract and signs elsewhere as a free agent. I prefer Jackson stays in San Jose forever, but it would be a shrewd move by Leitch to trade him, considering the depth in our midfield. The perfect fit for Jackson? St. Louis City SC. The expansion club enters MLS next year and would be wise to secure a box-to-box midfielder captain to build the team around, similar to the way Austin FC did with Alex Ring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Louis trade $1.8 million in GAM for Yueill ahead of their 2023 debut.
3. Tommy Thompson scores his first MLS home goal
Veteran and fan favorite Tommy Thompson enters his ninth MLS season. Hard to believe San Jose’s first homegrown signing has tallied just four MLS goals over his career, two of which if we’re to be honest were complete flubs. He’s never gotten the minutes he deserved under Kinnear and Stahre. Matias favors him at RB, which doesn’t bode well for Tommy bagging many goals. For some reason, Espinoza never looks for Tommy in the attacking third when he overlaps so goal scoring chances for TT are few and far between. Did you know none of his four MLS goals have come at PayPal Park? I need to will his first home goal into existence. Maybe Thompson’s nagging injuries over the past few years are behind him and he’ll be able push for more minutes under Almeyda’s final year. I sense his first PayPal Park goal is in the cards for 2022. A shirts off yellow card pop n lock goal celebration in front of the Faultline!
4. Cade Cowell books a flight to Qatar
How much longer do we have Cowell in San Jose before he’s sold to Dortmund for $15+ million? (Fingers crossed) I’m just going to enjoy every match he has left in San Jose this year and see him finish 2022 at the World Cup. This time last year I hyped Ricardo Pepi, predicting he’d cement his place atop the USMNT striker depth chart. Cowell is about the same age Pepi was right before setting MLS on fire with Dallas. I’ve tracked both careers closely and can say with confidence, Cowell has developed at the same pace as Pepi in MLS. Certainly, they possess different qualities, but both are exceptional goal scoring finishers for their age. Cowell is trending towards a huge 2022 and will solidify a spot on this year’s World Cup roster. Maybe not quite the final 23 but certainly as one of the 7 alternates. Assuming Berhalter goes with a 4-3-3 and carries 7 wingers, I have Cowell currently ranked behind Pulisic, Weah, Aaronson, Reyna, Morris, Hoppe, Arriola and Konrad de la Fuente. Gio and Konrad are fighting off injuries and Morris is coming off 2 ACL surgeries. Pulisic is susceptible to the injury bug so my question is are all these forwards going to stay healthy and in the mix for the World Cup? Not likely. Reyna and de la Fuente possibly miss out on the next Qualifiers in March. Leapfrogging Arriola and Konrad on the depth chart is in Cowell’s immediate future. If he starts the year hot like he did in 2021 he’s going to get a call from Berhalter and see significant minutes this cycle. Wouldn’t you go bugnutz for a Cowell banger at the Azteca?! He’s going to finish off the year in style sporting the red, white and blue.
5. Matias Almeyda goes the distance
The truth is Almeyda’s destiny is to finish out his contract whether he stewards this team to the playoffs or not. This prediction follows through on my original take after his first year in San Jose – Almeyda goes all four years as HC of the Earthquakes. Rumors constantly swirl that his departure is imminent and he’s going to ditch the Quakes for a better gig. It’s never been realistic. From the date of his hire I’ve reiterated the complexity of Almeyda’s paycheck, an astonishing four-year contract, and the sheer number of coaching staff members he brought with him to San Jose would always prevent him from bailing early. The miracle that Jesse Fioranelli pulled off when he lured Almeyda was that he somehow convinced Fisher to spend a stupid amount of money on Almeyda and his staff in lieu of signing true DPs. It was a naïve strategy, but at the time Fisher bought in. Almeyda’s annual salary is probably in the $1 million plus range making him the highest paid manager over the past three years in MLS. Almeyda and Fisher are handcuffed together. Even if Almeyda wanted to leave, which Liga MX team would offer even half his owed salary to buy him out? Don’t forget as Almeyda goes so does his entourage. Each of his staff is probably making more money per year in San Jose than they’ll ever see again on an annual basis. Giving Almeyda the boot isn’t as easy as it seems. Cheap as Fisher is, he certainly regrets paying a hefty sum for Almeyda, but no way would he ever fire him after just one or two years. That would bring Almeyda and his staff immediate millions and leave Fisher with the cost of not only hiring a new manager but an entire new technical staff. Who would replace him midseason? Alex Covelo would have been an obvious choice, but he’s now leading the MLS Next Pro team. This leaves nobody in San Jose to name as an interim coach if Almeyda leaves midseason. Or maybe there is?
6. San Jose secures a home playoff match on decision day
This year will mark the first and last time under head coach Matias Almeyda that San Jose makes the playoffs. Save your correction blurts and magic spray memes please! Finishing eighth during Covid 2020 doesn’t count in my book. Perhaps Nashville FC’s one year hiatus from the Eastern conference pushes other teams out west down a notch in the playoff pecking order, but I’m more optimistic heading into 2022 than I’ve been over the past three years of Almeyda’s reign. This time a year ago many fans and a few MLS pundits predicted San Jose would sneak into the playoffs. What’s changed for the worse heading into this next season? Why all the doom and gloom? San Jose has clearly made up ground, closing the talent gap with its Western Conference foes. There’s high-level TAM and low-level DP talent up and down San Jose’s revamped roster and I see potential in this club for the first time in years. The Jamiro Monteiro trade last week is massive. My hunch is he just needs a change of scenery to find his form again. When he’s on his game in the attack, he makes everyone around him better. Where is the excitement for a full year from Jeremy Ebobisse and Jan Gregus? Chofis turned in a DP caliber performance in the second half 2021 and I thought he’d be a bust. The icing on the cake is the sheer power of ‘addition by subtraction’. Simply eliminate the minutes awarded to Fierro, Rios, Vega and Alanis over Almeyda’s tenure and San Jose finishes as a seventh seed or better every year. Fact check that if you want, but you know it’s true. The X factor is a full season of Nathan leading the backline. Praying his knee is OK. No way in Matias-hell can we leak as many goals in defense as in years past. But if I’m picking Nathan to be MLS Defender of the Year, or at least an MLS best XI, I must also make the bold prediction that San Jose makes the playoffs. Why? Because the last team to have a best XI center back and not make the playoffs? It never happens. You have to go all the way back to Jimmy Conrad at SKC in 2005. I got Seattle first in the West followed by LAFC, Nashville, San Jose, Portland, LA Galaxy and SKC in seventh. San Jose will head to Seattle on decision day and clinch its first home playoff match at PayPal.
7. Jeremy Ebobisse scores 17 goals
Where are all the goals going to come from? Every offseason panic sets in and we bicker over where San Jose is going to get their goals. It’s pretty clear Jebo must be the answer in 2022. I flirted with the idea of picking a dark horse candidate like Benji Kikanovich to lead San Jose in goals scored, but after the signing of Jamiro Monteiro I’m confident the attack will be much improved. This bodes well for Jebo to have a career year and I think he makes for a sneaky play as a Golden Boot dark horse. That might be a stretch, but the talent has always been there with Ebobisse. All he requires is to finally be featured as a striker, which inexplicably didn’t happen for him in Portland. Surrounded by Cowell, Monteiro and Espinoza, all of whom are exceptional at creating chances and tallying assists, sky’s the limit for Ebobisse. 17 goals and an MLS All-Star selection for Jebo in 2022.
8. San Jose names Landon Donovan head coach for 2023
Next year will mark the 20 Year anniversary of San Jose’s last MLS Cup victory. Maybe it’s time to bring some Landon Donovan magic back to San Jose. The Earthquakes roster construction since last summer has been incredible considering what Leitch had to work with. I trust under his leadership that by season’s end our head coaching vacancy may actually be appealing to many candidates. Sam Stejskal reported in September 2021 that Donovan had interviewed for the Real Salt Lake managerial position, and it was widely reported a month later than Donovan actually turned it down. Why? He clearly has his eyes set on MLS if the perfect situation arises. I’m boldly predicting it’s because he's holding out for San Jose. Or perhaps Las Vegas? Donovan currently is co-owner, coach and EVP of San Diego Loyal SC in the USL Championship which means he would likely want to finish the USL season before securing an MLS head coaching position. I’m pretty sure MLS and USL finish up their seasons around the same time this year, right before the World Cup commences. That just might be perfect timing to bring back a legend for club and country. Would you welcome Donovan back with open arms? (ducks head)
Give me your bold predictions, criticisms and hot takes in the comments below. Go Quakes!